We are developing and applying a series of linked simulation models that will allow tracking the effects of pulsed freshwater inputs through hydrodynamics, biogeochemical cycling, primary production, zooplankton dynamics, fish growth, and water quality changes.

TABS Hydrodynamic Model Grid of the Breton Sound Estuary

Each of these models necessarily operate on temporal and spatial scales appropriate for their dynamics. Common development of these models will enable them to share information and be linked via the predictions of one model being used as input values for another model. All of the models are being implemented to the Breton Sound estuary and Barataria Basin, and will be used to generate spatio-temporal maps of key state variables.

The coordinated field sampling and modeling will enable development of a consistent set of data to ensure that the different models can be calibrated to the same conditions. Both field data and models will be used to evaluate the hypotheses that contrast how energy and nutrients are propagated up the food chain and exported under the many, small and the fewer, large pulsing scenarios. Models will also be used to guide us in future data acquisition. As one part of our knowledge-building efforts to guide restoration and recovery of estuarine and wetland systems in the Gulf of Mexico, we will evaluate the stability of former, current (i.e., post Katrina), and potentially altered stable ecosystem states.